http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/asia-pacific/8685051.stm
30 dead in the last couple of days... 60 dead since mid-April. People rising up against a corrupt government...
This has been expected for a long time. I was talking about this with friends in Bangkok when I was there in February and we all agreed that something big was coming - now it's there. It's a state of rebellion... the people of the impoverished provinces taking on the wealthy urban elite in Bangkok, facing armed troops with improvised weapons and dying.
This BBC article is largely accurate, though it does err in stating that all the deaths have been civilian - the people have managed to kill a few soldiers. And there are likely former soldiers with arms among the civilians, fighting against the government.
I've been in all these areas where the fighting is. If I were in Bangkok now, I'd do whatever I could to help these people - even if it were nothing more than bringing them food. And I wouldn't last long in the combat zone - the sight of a foreign face in the crowd would attract all the special forces' snipers.
The king is very ill and has been silent on the situation, though the royal family has been assisting at the hospitals in various ways. The king is likely dying - and he knows that he can't solve this situation (as he has solved difficulties in the past when the government failed).
The prime minister is Oxford-educated supreme egotist (a friend of mine interviewed him ten years ago for a French news magazine and has told me a lot about him) who cannot entertain the thought of stepping down and dissolving parliament for new elections which he would doubtlessly lose. He had the opportunity to reduce the corruption which has bled the life out of Thai people and he merely continued to facilitate the agenda of the Bangkok elite.
My question is whether the army, coming from the very segments of society that are in rebellion, will continue to support the government. Certainly, the senior officers are members of the establishment but the rank and file come from the poor provinces that the rich deride as "water buffaloes". There are rumors of divisions in the military and strong suspicions that former and perhaps current members of the military are secretly with the people. One senior army general went over to the people, but a Thai army sniper took him out with a shot to the head while he was being interviewed by the press, the bullet passing over the head of the reporter - nice shooting, of course... maybe this guy will get a marksmanship award.
Thailand is not Burma - I don't think the Thai army will mercilessly gun down their brothers and sisters.
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